Aotearoa
FUTURES
barometer
August 2026
What is the Aotearoa we want to belong to?
2026
What is the Aotearoa we want to belong to?
In 2025 Tokona te Raki in partnership with the Curiosity Company and Truwind embarked on a research mission to gain a sense of how New Zealanders were feeling about the future, to enable us to think creatively about what we need to do as a country if we are to leave things in a better place for our next generations. What the Aotearoa Futures Barometer told us was that at that point we were still a country that still believed in itself, despite our growing concerns about the world.
A year on, that belief is wavering, with optimism nearly halved and continuing to decline. Once a country where the great Kiwi dream (a detached family home, a 1/4 acre section, a boat, a bach…) was something most of us could aspire to – big or small, has now been reduced to not much more than basic human survival – warmth, shelter and food. Most of us no longer look to get ahead, we just want to get by. Yet almost every New Zealander agrees on one thing, something has to change and for the most part there is a sense of personal responsibility, and the capability to be part creating a better future for New Zealand. But, there is a flipside – around 50 percent are not confident their contribution will have an impact.
This is concerning data considering we are 14 years away from the bi-centenary of the signing of Te Tiriti o Waitangi; our social cohesion has never been more fragile and is continuing to fracture. Is this the Aotearoa we want our children and mokopuna to inherit? Imagine if together we could create a new direction for the future – one built on hope and with the ability to hold through changes of government – and most importantly one that we can all see ourselves in Aotearoa ki tua – Beyond 2040.
Awhina McGlinchey
Kaiwhakatere
Tokona te Raki
A New Dream for New Zealand?
Like all good research, in many ways Beyond 2040 raises more questions than it answers. It’s clear that Aotearoa New Zealand remains a place people feel deeply attached to. We heard a great deal about the pull of family, whānau, and community. And about the importance of feeling safe, living in balance, and surrounded by outstanding natural beauty. But we also heard that while Aotearoa New Zealand is a place where people feel at home, it is increasingly one where they don’t feel they can get ahead.
A year on, that belief is wavering, with optimism nearly halved and continuing to decline. Once a country where the great Kiwi dream (a detached family home, a 1/4 acre section, a boat, a bach…) was something most of us could aspire to – big or small, has now been reduced to not much more than basic human survival – warmth, shelter and food. Most of us no longer look to get ahead, we just want to get by. Yet almost every New Zealander agrees on one thing, something has to change and for the most part there is a sense of personal responsibility, and the capability to be part creating a better future for New Zealand. But, there is a flipside – around 50 percent are not confident their contribution will have an impact.
This is concerning data considering we are 14 years away from the bi-centenary of the signing of Te Tiriti o Waitangi; our social cohesion has never been more fragile and is continuing to fracture. Is this the Aotearoa we want our children and mokopuna to inherit? Imagine if together we could create a new direction for the future – one built on hope and with the ability to hold through changes of government – and most importantly one that we can all see ourselves in Aotearoa ki tua – Beyond 2040.
Carl Davidson
Chief Curiosity Officer
Curiosity Company
ASPIRATIONS FOR THE FUTURE - A SNAPSHOT
01
Our aspirations for the New Zealand of the future tend towards the modest – security (financial, employment and housing), access to good quality healthcare and education, family wellbeing and connection, and a safe, green and more equitable society. Big dreams are a thing of the past.
02
Economic viability is the single most consistent factor shaping migration decisions (housing, wages and job opportunities).
03
New Zealand is where we feel at home, but not always where we think we can get ahead. This is coupled with a low optimism for the future of the country.
04
Yet, the reality is that most, whether by choice or personal constraints, intend to stay in NZ or, if we leave, to return permanently to live – likely driving a high vested interest in change for the future.
05
There is a strong appetite for change and a sense of personal responsibility. New Zealanders see the route to change as an individual through community engagement, civic participation (ensuring our voices are heard) and environmental safeguarding actions.
06
Through a national lens there are calls for change to address financial concerns (the cost of living and job opportunities), focus on a longer-term national vision through political change, and ensuring healthcare and education are a priority.
“A country whose leaders put their people first. Who put aside their own pride and ideals and look to the people for inspiration and guidance. We need longevity, foresight and a collective vision for progression.”
“Being able to afford the necessities on an average income. Not struggling from week to week to have or do nice things. Having savings in the bank.”
“No one struggling to put food on the table and being able to live without worrying about money constantly.”
Q. When you think about New Zealand’s future, do you feel it’s getting better or worse?
Base: Total sample 2026 n=1,271, 2025 n=1,628 (weighted) *Source: Futures Barometer 2025
APPETITE FOR CHANGE - A SNAPSHOT
There is a strong appetite for change and a sense of responsibility to engage, but there is also a lack of trust and confidence in decision-makers that their voice will be heard. An identified need for public will to drive political will – but how?
01
The sense of personal responsibility to create a beter future is high; and we believe as citizens we are capable to do so.
02
Economic viability is the single most consistent factor shaping migration decisions (housing, wages and job opportunities).
03
New Zealanders feel we have a voice and that our vote matters but are not always listened to.
04
We are more confident in our knowledge of how to contribute to decision making, than the impact we can have, particularly at a national level.
05
Among New Zealanders there is more civic trust than mistrust, but civic trust is stronger from a local than national perspective.
06
We have greater confidence in having the skills and capabilities to tackle the challenges of the future, than in our unity to do so.
Responsibility and Capability for Change
Q. How far do you agree or disagree with the following statements…..
Base: Total sample n=1,271 (weighted)
Voices that Matter
Q. How far do you agree or disagree with the following statements…..
Base: Total sample n=1,271 (weighted)
“Alone I cannot do anything to change the future of New Zealand. It needs to be a combined effort with all peoples agreeing the way forward.”
“New Zealanders have a good strong voice….it’s just whether or not they’re listened to.”
Civic Trust
Q: Overall how much trust do you have in the way your community is led and supported?
Q: When you were answering this question, did you answer from?
Base: Total sample n=1,271 (weighted)
why change matters
Nearly all New Zealanders see change as key for New Zealand’s future – and for around two thirds, it is critical.
“If we just keep going the way we're going, we will lose more and more… people do need to step in.”
The Importance of Change
Q. How important is it for New Zealand to make changes for its future?
Base: Total sample n=1,271 (weighted)
Change is seen to be particularly important for females, Māori and those who plan to leave New Zealand for good.
How important is it for New Zealand to make changes for its future?
Base: Total sample n=1,271 (weighted)
OUR BEST AOTEAROA OF THE FUTURE
New Zealanders’ personal aspirations are modest – it’s security rather than prosperity; stability over getting ahead and economic relief over advancement.
“The best New Zealand in 2040 is fair, affordable, and inclusive, with good jobs, housing, and quality public services for everyone."
For you and your family
01
Financial/ employment security and affordability
02
Housing
security
03
Good health and healthcare access
04
Family wellbeing and connection
05
Safe, cohesive society
06
Environmental sustainability
For citizens as a whole
01
Fixing affordability - cost of living
02
Economic improvement
03
Fairness and equality
04
Quality healthcare and education
05
Safe society, reduced crime
06
Affordable, secure housing
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